The Fiksu Blog

iOS 10 adoption surging; tracker updates

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While iOS 10 wasn’t setting the world on fire from its initial launch, falling short of the adoption curve set by iOS 6, 7, and 9, that looks to be changing in recent days. Our iOS tracker shows the adoption of iOS 10 accelerating over the last week, quickly adding almost 20 percentage points to hit 57% of the iPhones and iPads in our sample.

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A few factors could be involved:

  • Consumers who were slow to upgrade after some iPhones froze up during the iOS 10 installation have been satisfied that Apple fixed that issue.
  • Pre-ordered iPhone 7s, which were in great demand, are finally in most consumers’ hands, and iPhone 7 continues to become available in more and more countries, adding more iOS 10 devices to the total pool.
  • While iOS 10 doesn’t have a “must have” feature to really drive up adoption rates, users have had time to see the update in action and hear from friends and family, and may be deciding that UI updates, improved Siri and Maps, and the ability to get rid of those stock apps on your home screen are really worth the upgrade after all.

Hat tip to @lukebrewster, who noticed the change over the weekend.

Improving the model

We’ve also made a small tweak to our iOS adoption tracker to improve the comparison of successive launches. Specifically, we removed devices that are not eligible for the upgrade from the total. For example, we’re no longer counting iPhone 4 and 4s devices as part of the calculation for iOS 10.

As you’d expect, that boosts the stats of more recent launches a bit. iOS 10 for example, went from 27.8% to 31.5% on day 7 and 35.3% to 40.1% on day 14. The most recent stat – day 20 – went from 49.4% to 57.1% as I write this, but is subject to change as the day goes on.

We made this change simply because our data set spans back so far that we still have a small but measurable amount of devices that fall into this category: 6.3% of the iPhones we see, for example, are 4S or 4Ses. While that’s important on our overall snapshot of the market, it’s not accurate to include them when measuring how quickly users are migrating to iOS 10.

What’s next?

If this uptick is more than just a temporary change, it indicates good news for Apple going into the crucial holiday season. It may mean more iPhone 7s and 7 Pluses are going to be showing up in our trackers soon, and it probably means the public reaction to iOS 10 is going to stay strong.